The data show:
The most likely month for the price rise of Apple was in February, and the biggest fall probability was in October.
The largest month for the rise in the price of bananas was in February, and the most likely month for the fall was July.
Orange prices in February is the maximum probability, the probability of decline is the biggest month of October;
The largest probability of the rise in the price of Yali pear was in November, and the most likely month for the fall was August.
The most likely months for the rise in the price of grapes were November, January, and May, and the most likely month to fall was August.
There is a regular seasonal fluctuation in the trend of fruit price. The same is the effect of holidays is more obvious, that is, in the new year, the Spring Festival before and after the high price. The difference is that the growth cycle of different fruits is different, and the difference in the time of concentrating on the market causes the price trend to be different.
Seasonal characteristics
1. The law of price rise and fall of apple
The national wholesale average price of Fuji apple in December -2017 January 2007, statistics its monthly rise and fall law. Statistics show that the biggest probability of increase is February. In 11 years, there is a 11 year increase, the probability of rise is 100%, followed by June and July, 11 years, 10 years, and the probability of rise is 91%. The biggest fall probability is October, in 11 years, 10 years fall, the probability of decline is 91%, followed by November, March, 11 years for 8 years, the fall probability of 73%.
2. The law of rising and falling of bananas
The national wholesale average price of bananas in December -2017 January 2008, statistics its monthly fluctuation law. Statistics show that the biggest probability of increase is February. In 10 years, there is a 8 year increase. The probability of rise is 80%, followed by January. The 9 years have 7 years of rise and the probability of rise is 78%. The biggest fall probability is July, for 10 years, 10 years fall, the fall probability is 100%, followed by November, 10 years for 8 years, the fall probability of 80%.
3, the price rise of orange
The orange wholesale average price in January 2008 -2017 year in December, the monthly change of statistics. Statistics show that the biggest probability of increase is February. In 10 years, there is a 8 year increase. The probability of rise is 80%, followed by January. The 9 years have 6 years of rise and the probability of rise is 67%. The biggest fall probability is 10 months, and 8 years fell in 10, and the fall probability was 80%.
4. The law of the price rise and fall of Yali Pear
The national wholesale average price of Yali in December -2017 January 2006, statistics its monthly rise and fall law. Statistics show that the biggest probability of increase is December. In 11 years, there is a 11 year increase, the probability of rise is 100%, followed by May and June, 12 years, 9 years, and the probability of rise is 75%. The biggest fall probability is August, which has fallen for 11 years in 12, followed by September, for 9 years in 12 years, and the probability of falling by 75%.
5. The rising and falling rules of the grape price
January 2006 -2017 December the national wholesale price of the grapes, statistics its monthly fluctuation law. Statistics show that the biggest probability of increase is November, January and May. In 12 years, there is a 11 year increase, the probability of rise is 92%, followed by April, 12 years, 8 years, and the probability of rise is 67%. The biggest fall probability was August, in 12 years, 12 years fell, followed by September, 11 years in 12 years, the fall probability of 92%.
Analysis on factors affecting price commodity prices are affected by supply and demand, the seasonal pattern of supply and demand determines the price of some respective seasonal pattern is inevitable, especially the seasonal difference in supply or demand, seasonal price is relatively prominent. The following is the price of fruit of the seasonal trend slightly analysis of similarities and differences.
Similarities: the main performance of consumption, that is, China's fruit consumption is significantly affected by the holiday effect. The price of fruit has two important nodes in the year, namely, the Mid Autumn Festival and national day, new year's day and the Spring Festival. In general, in front of these two nodes, the price will rise phased. But because the Mid Autumn Festival and national day are listed on the fruit, its impact on fruit prices is not very obvious, while the new year's day and the Spring Festival are more obvious. From the above statistical law and price chart, we can see that the price of five kinds of fruits reaches a high level in January and February (corresponding to new year's day and around the Spring Festival).
Differences: because of the different growth cycles of different fruits and the different time of different fruits in the market, the price trend is different. The growth cycle of apple, orange and pear is consistent, the price trend of convergence, the annual 9-10 month in the harvest period, supply greatly increased, prices gradually decline, from December to February, by Christmas, new year and spring festival consumption stimulation, prices gradually rise, in March of the following year (the spring Festival year) by demand to reduce the influence, at the same time reduce the supply of the market, prices remained stable after April, with reduced supply, gradually increase, the price 6-7 month, stocks reached the lows of the year, and the new season fruit is not yet listed, the highest price reached a seasonal fluctuation. The price of bananas appeared in the year three stages of a small peak, the first section is gradually rising from around March, reached a peak in May, then gradually decline, from 7 in August, lower prices slowed down, the rapid decline in prices again after September, until November to February gradually stabilized after reached new high stage.
The fluctuation of the banana price is highly related to the time of bananas in different producing areas. The banana market in China includes four areas: one is Yunnan, Laos and Burma, the main market is 1-5 months, two is Hainan and western Guangdong, the main market is 6-8 months, three is Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian area, the main market is 8-12 months. suffer
